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Here comes $4 a gallon
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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Gman

Since 11 Feb 2006
4911 Posts
Portland
Unstrapped



PostFri Mar 14, 08 10:58 am     Reply with quote

Drove one of these for two years but the range wouldn't make it to sauvies. http://www.gemcar.com/models/

mine didn't have doors which is more fun.

Unicorns get it on!


   Happy Unicorn.jpg 

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pjc

Since 06 Mar 2005
649 Posts

Addicted



PostFri Mar 14, 08 11:01 am     Reply with quote

actually, total oil consumption in the u.s. is more price sensitive than you think. i think 2005 showed a year to year per capita decline, and the most recent spike has also shown a per capita decline week to week (less accurate, probably).

people do drive the hummer less, or carpool more, etc. when the price goes up. this thread points to that trend as well - folks who were never particularly motivated to car pool when al gore told them it was a good idea are now all fired up in order to save a buck or two (or twenty).

personally, im voting for any candidate who advocates a carbon tax. tax pollution, not earnings.

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Slipin Lizard

Since 23 Sep 2005
88 Posts
Hood River, Oregon
 



PostFri Mar 14, 08 11:56 am     Reply with quote

pjc wrote:
actually, total oil consumption in the u.s. is more price sensitive than you think. i think 2005 showed a year to year per capita decline, and the most recent spike has also shown a per capita decline week to week (less accurate, probably).

people do drive the hummer less, or carpool more, etc. when the price goes up. this thread points to that trend as well - folks who were never particularly motivated to car pool when al gore told them it was a good idea are now all fired up in order to save a buck or two (or twenty)


From watching CNN, reading on-line, and other sources, yes, right now with the gas spike there has been a SLIGHT reduction in usage. Not true for price hike about a year and a half ago, where gas shot up to over $3 per gallon quite suddenly. Believe it or not, gas usage/demand actually rose in that time period. The fact that this is a kite forum means that people contributing are likely early adopters, and probably more than willing to start "thinking outside the box" to save on gas expense.

However, this isn't being reflected by the average American citizen. The over-all tendancy is that when gas prices go up, people cut back on other expenditures, even food, to off set the increase in fuel cost. The fact that total oil consumption is NOT all that sensitive to price is at the very heart of the issue. Why not charge more for oil if people are just going to buy it anyway? Economists have predicted that gas will have to reach between $5-$6 per gallon for there to be about a 5% decrease in consumption in the US. At that point, gas prices will probably come down a bit, then yoyo around while hopefully others manage to offer better fuel alternatives to the consumer.

What amazes me is that it seems that building a wind farm on a logged area that will be visible from the Gorge is unacceptable, but we do need a 90,000 sq ft. casino right on the waterfront that will make the Troutdale to Portland rush hour traffic look like a minor slow down.

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pjc

Since 06 Mar 2005
649 Posts

Addicted



PostFri Mar 14, 08 12:53 pm     Reply with quote

it is only a sliver, but you can see total consumption decline slightly here.

http://greenecon.net/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/oil_demand.jpg

of course the pop is growing so when the line is flat then per capita consumption is declining. this was all discussed on npr and economist a few years back i doubt it is fabricated.

(now exitting off topic thread...)

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Mark

Since 20 Jun 2005
3678 Posts
I need my fix because I'm a
Naishaholic



PostFri Mar 14, 08 2:46 pm     Reply with quote

Gman wrote:

Unicorns get it on!

Is that where Narwhals come from?


   narwhal2.jpg 

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47.dk

Since 26 Oct 2006
4 Posts

Kook



PostFri Mar 14, 08 4:24 pm     Reply with quote

Here in EU theŽone gallon cost $8.50

Why do you think we dont drive your cars??? Wink

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Kraemer

Since 24 Apr 2006
1736 Posts
Sky Pilot
Unicorn Captain



PostFri Mar 14, 08 4:56 pm     Reply with quote

8.50 American or 8.50 Euros?

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registered

Since 12 Jul 2005
1319 Posts
tsunami
Sandbagger



PostFri Mar 14, 08 8:45 pm     Reply with quote

worlD GAS PRICES OLD OR NEW?



Netherlands Amsterdam $6.48
Norway Oslo $6.27
Italy Milan $5.96
Denmark Copenhagen $5.93
Belgium Brussels $5.91
Sweden Stockholm $5.80
United Kingdom London $5.79
Germany Frankfurt $5.57
France Paris $5.54
Portugal Lisbon $5.35
Hungary Budapest $4.94
Luxembourg $4.82
Croatia Zagreb $4.81
Ireland Dublin $4.78
Switzerland Geneva $4.74
Spain Madrid $4.55
Japan Tokyo $4.24
Czech Republic Prague $4.19
Romania Bucharest $4.09
Andorra $4.08
Estonia Tallinn $3.62
Bulgaria Sofia $3.52
Brazil Brasilia $3.12
Cuba Havana $3.03
Taiwan Taipei $2.84
Lebanon Beirut $2.63
South Africa Johannesburg $2.62
Nicaragua Managua $2.61
Panama Panama City $2.19
Russia Moscow $2.10
Puerto Rico San Juan $1.74
Saudi Arabia Riyadh $0.91
Kuwait Kuwait City $0.78
Egypt Cairo $0.65
Nigeria Lagos $0.38
Venezuela Caracas $0.12

Source: air-inc.com

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registered

Since 12 Jul 2005
1319 Posts
tsunami
Sandbagger



PostSat Mar 15, 08 7:23 am     Reply with quote

heres a versitile little rig.


can't get it to link right a car called evolution, fan car than flys and drives and goes in the water too.

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mschulz

Since 29 May 2007
530 Posts
Reno, NV
Addicted



PostSat Mar 15, 08 1:10 pm     Reply with quote

Here is a car that gets 200 miles per gallon.
http://www.aptera.com/

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tautologies

Since 24 Aug 2006
602 Posts
Oahu
Addicted



PostSat Mar 15, 08 2:26 pm     Reply with quote

Aloha, sorry to be the one to bring you the bad news (again)...but how could you not expect this?

This is actually pretty simple nd a matter of supply demand and incredible bad economical sense....

Since the oil prices are set in dollar the prices of oil will continue to go up as the dollar value goes down. A lot of countries are protesting paying in dollars since it seems to make their product less valued as time goes. In many was unless you are into exports you are getting screwed two ways by the recession. First by your cash not being worth as much relatively speaking...and yes prices will go up since the import is pretty intense here...and secondly because of the oil price..I guess it is a form of import, but the price is set differently.

For those of us that pay on student loans abroad (me), I getting it twice as hard...the dollar is now valued almost 50% less than 6 years ago when I received them. Which brings my loss to level unheard of...I guess minus inflation...which is marginal anyway.

There is no difference in threat levels of supply of oil, so the sole reason now is the dollar value. In addition, and this will come later there is the problem of peak oil. Add to it a pinch of global warming, and you have a full set of problems...

I really think this country needs to stop lending money (I wish I could have a discussion I had with my economy prof. 6 years ago again...I'd pointing my finger at him laughing) and start paying off debts. It is the only way to a sound economy. Borrowing trillions (?) of dollars will only lead further into the hole...well I guess except for the ones that earn a lot from the increasing spending.

That said, I really also thinik that for the sake of it, $4 isn't that bad. Note that I am from Norway and I have lived some years in Amsterdam...actually I think the prices given in the list above is wrong. They are calculated using old dollar values, the correct pricing in Oslo, Norway right now is about $9 a gallon. (I did the calculations from Oslo price per liter convert to gallon divide by dollar...)

One good thing that might come out of this is that it forces people to be more environmentally friendly, and we need it...badly.

So this is wrong...should be in the $9 range...
Quote:
1. Netherlands Amsterdam $6.48
2. Norway Oslo $6.27


If it weren't for the fact the the oil companies are using the situation to earn increasingly more, I'd say the prices were fair. I think the government should add a tax on gas (which will never happen here since the automotive industry is so large), and control oil companies power. I am not say taking control over them, I am saying minimize the impact they have as lobbyists.

wow, another rant from me...better got over to Kailua and get my helix and foilboard on....

a.

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tautologies

Since 24 Aug 2006
602 Posts
Oahu
Addicted



PostSat Mar 15, 08 2:44 pm     Reply with quote

pkh wrote:
Its pretty simple: China & India are driving up demand for Oil. That and with the dollar in the toliet, boom: $4 a gallon. We keep sending our money overseas, they are getting richer and richer and have more buying power, and now they all want cars and A/C (the American Dream in Asia.)

Plus oil is like gold, in limited supply, and it can't be fabricated. So as long as we are dependent on it you can expect it to go up in price.


actually the demand for oil is primarily driven by the US...for so many reasons...not only because the US by far requires the most oil in the world, but also because the US are driving the demand for an industrialized China. ie. we buy kites manufactured in China..I think the biggest problem for China is that so much of its economy is tied up in dollars so they are stuck with a currency that devalues greatly.

In 2004 the US demanded between 3 and 4 times more oil than the next country...which was China.


Anyhoo, I really think there will be a change in philosophy and attitude, so here is a free tip:

get rid of your gas guzzler NOW. In a few years no-one will buy it...the SUV marked will not only decline, it will disappear. There will be social stigmas if you drive a car that uses a lot of gas almost like smokers experience today. ..this is just my take on what I think will happen...

A.

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shastadogs2

Since 28 Mar 2005
336 Posts

Obsessed



PostSun Mar 16, 08 7:01 am     Reply with quote

there is another seemingly unrelated piece to all this.

diabetes is reaching epidemic levels in the US, and also in much of the industrialized world. to simplify just a bit, the problem is related ito nsulin resistance in the periipheral tissues, read "muscles," that while multifactorial seems largely the result of our sedentary lifestyles.

to translate a bit: our cars are making us sick, and not just because of pollution.

rising oil costs may be key in imporiving our health.

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
6549 Posts
Couve / Hood
Honored Founder



PostSun Mar 16, 08 7:13 am     Reply with quote

I still think China & India are the biggest risks to oil consumption worldwide. They have 2.5 billion people between them! And China especially has demonstrated that they are capable of carrying out atrocities against the environment and humanity with little concern for repercussions.

How can you honestly expect them not to want the same quality of life that we all enjoy? Of course if they do get that quality of life, there's no way we can sustain ... the supply will run dry very quickly.

As for US gas guzzlers... I think it will sort itself out with the raising prices. The big price tag on that Hummer will be nothing compared to the ongoing gas costs.

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Kitesail

Since 23 Jun 2006
108 Posts
The Gorge
Stoked



PostSun Mar 16, 08 11:38 am    Saving fuel $$$ Reply with quote

I was really impressed when I was kiting in Tibia, Brazil. The local surfers have racks on their bicycles that hold their surfboards in a vertical position. Pretty cool to see the surf scene down there.

Anyway, this is what I rigged up for my KLX300 this season, doubt I will go any further than the Gorge with my bike and kite gear. I’ve been up to 60mph with minimal turbulence.

Regards,
John


   Kawa1.jpg 
   Kawa2.jpg 
   Kawa3.jpg 
   Kawa4.jpg 

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A good day is any day; A great day is a WINDY day!

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blowhard

Since 26 Dec 2005
2027 Posts

Windward



PostSun Mar 16, 08 1:50 pm     Reply with quote

In the 70's people couldn't get fuel
wait half a day and then get 10 gallons
It would be interesting to see how people would react to that situation.

The outcome was a bunch of fuel efficient rigs and consumption went down.The reserve went up.
A few years of a strong dollar and economy big rigs reappeared ,reserve goes down.
Thankfully the chinese have let thier yuan float more or less by tying it to the value of the dollar.
Congress should stop the cheap money ,they control the fed.
$1000 gold is not good .
but if you can buy $50k rigs(or kites)
who gives a shit

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Reaper356

Since 10 Dec 2006
781 Posts
Salem / LC Oregon
Opinionated



PostSun Mar 16, 08 2:45 pm     Reply with quote

Quote:
Venezuela Caracas $0.12 Shocked

Anyone for a gas run?

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