Manzo gurus- forecasting

caps · Since 23 Dec 2010 343 Posts Obsessed

While I wouldn't come close to being a regular at Manzanita, I do find ways to get there maybe 6-8x per year. My forecasting for Manzo is pretty basic- I usually add 5-7mph to the average computer forecast for Manzanita and it gets me in the ballpark. Of course, that's assuming it's a NW wind. Also, Iwindsurf will forecast for the "North coast" and maybe give a generic mid to high teens. What does that mean in relation to Manzo? Is it a general wind call for the whole North coast? If so, then I'd have to add to it as well since Manzo is always windier than the other spots on northerlies. I'm just hoping to gain from the collective wisdom out there so I can get my Manzo fix!

Cheers

Sasquatch · Since 09 Mar 2005 2058 Posts PNW Bigfoot

I'm not a local, but Manzo is always a consideration for me as I ride in the ocean 90% of the time.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?minlon=-125&maxlon=-120.8&minlat=43.39&maxlat=46.91&mapwidth=354&site=pqr&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=120&map.y=103#.VWX5mtm9Kc0

I just use NOAA. If it says 10-15mph from the N/NW than it usually is a go/12m or less.

Note the NW wind tends to be better than true North winds as it is more filled in and less gusty typically.

I also shy away from forecasts like winds n/NW winds 10-20 mph as the variances creates very poor wind quality and or not enough wind to sail--just from my experiences.

South/SW winds all bets are off with what I just typed up. I typically don't ride Manzo in S/SW winds.

Locals want to chime in?

caps · Since 23 Dec 2010 343 Posts Obsessed

Yesterday: Iwindsurf computer forecasted averages of NW 8-10mph and NOAA had it at 5-10knts, with gusts to 15. What played out? It was a solid 12m from 4-6pm. I think the above forecast is probably the minimum to make it a go as long as the sun comes out. And I will add that the waves were on- big, meaty sets rolling through. In fact, I cut my sesh short due to the beasty waves- took me out of my comfort zone. Love Manzo!

beefcake · Since 11 Jul 2007 140 Posts Stoked

so based on the above, the weekend looks like 10-12m eh?

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
844 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES
2 FT. W SWELL 4 FT AT 12 SECONDS. SECONDARY SWELL SW 3 FT AT
18 SECONDS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT
12 SECONDS. SECONDARY SWELL SW 3 FT AT 17 SECONDS.
.FRI...N WIND 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT 11 SECONDS.
SECONDARY SWELL SW 3 FT AT 16 SECONDS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT
AT 11 SECONDS. SECONDARY SWELL SW 3 FT AT 15 SECONDS.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT AT
11 SECONDS. SECONDARY SWELL SW 3 FT AT 15 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT...EASING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. NW SWELL 3 FT AT 11 SECONDS.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT. W SWELL 4 FT.

Sasquatch · Since 09 Mar 2005 2058 Posts PNW Bigfoot

barfly · Since 31 Mar 2005 1210 Posts Seaside BRACKISH

I drove from Seaside yesterday risking a skunk and was not. Yesterday was not normal but there was a hint of sunshine at the mountain so took the Gamble. Surf was great and I kited my 10m, wind was pretty good then got funky but birdman kited another 1-1/2 after I quit for a surf at Shorty's. Spring is sweet!!!

drtaamc · Since 24 Jul 2008 118 Posts Stoked

Agree with Sasquatch. Any NOAA forecast NW 10-15 or better usually will go at Manzo. Went down from PDX last Wed(5/27)...the gauge at Manzo was out in the am, so it was a gamble. Fog at the coastline all the way South to Neahkanie Mtn. Completely sunny in Manzanita and the fog came back to the shore past Nehalem Bay. Kited perfect 12m conditions 3:30-6 with clean 8-10ft faces on the outside. Swell was WNW 6' 15sec and SW 3' 19sec. A SW swell really seems to work well at Manzanita...just my impression. Ciao.