Jones Beach reports for last few days?

MikeZ · Since 17 Jul 2012 207 Posts Beaverton / Seaside / Govy Stoked

Hey all. . .

Just curious if there have been any/many of ya’ll out at Jones beach over the last few days. The ikitesurf/iwindsurf/weatherflow sensor has been down, and I’m trying to gauge how it might be the next couple days, which aren’t looking hugely different than the last couple days.

The temperature and pressure gradients between Astoria and PDX haven’t been huge, but they appear to have been respectable – especially since Astoria has been cooling by 5pm, while PDX hasn’t (at least not much). Yesterday at 5pm (for example), Astoria was 60F, and PDX was 76F, with a 2.2mb (0.06 in) onshore pressure differential.

Anyone been out there? If so, how’s it been?

Thanks.

Jonpnw · Wed Aug 29, 12 9:03 am

Is the iKite human forecast for Jones very accurate? They have been predicting near 20 the last couple days. Would like to go Thursday.

D-Krep It Kiter · Since 18 Jul 2011 417 Posts Obsessed

We were there on Sunday. The forecast... tough to say... sometimes its right on the money, and sometimes, like Sunday, its off quite a bit. Can go both ways. They always seem to forecast for "around 20", but days like last Sunday, it just never got all that windy, and then a few days before that with the same forecast, it was nuking.

It usually seems like with Jones that if they forecast it to have wind, it does. Clouds seem to temper the winds a bit, sunny skies through to Portland seem to bring stronger winds.

We're finding that its important to not only pay attention to the wind forecast, but the tides as well. An incoming tide can turn a "doable" wind session into a downwinder & walk back. Outgoing tide really helps with staying upwind and making the lighter winds work.

Looks like Thursday you've got a whopper of an incoming tide until around 2:30-3pm, then a mellower out-going tide for the rest of the day. Combined with the forecasted "near 20" winds, that should make for some nice kiting.

Jonpnw · Wed Aug 29, 12 9:39 am

Thank you for your input D Krep It. I have the kiting part figured out now I am working on my meteorologist skills. Very Happy

Which tide table do you use for Jones? Clastskanine?

Blazeheliski · Since 30 Mar 2011 659 Posts Mosier Addicted

I thought about going to Jones on Sunday - but the temperature difference between Astoria and Portland did not seem big enough. The clouds were not breaking up in Portland - so I headed to Hood River that day.

Look for sun and warm temps for Portland and cooler temps for Astoria and Jones almost always blows. Portland in the 80s and Astoria in the high 60s seems to make Jones go like clockwork. When Portland gets into the 90s and 100s - many times there is an east wind messing things up. When Portland is in the 70s - sometimes the temperature difference is not enough to drive the wind. It can still go under any of those conditions - but it is just not as reliable.

MikeZ · Wed Aug 29, 12 9:43 am

I'm also looking at Thursday - and Friday too, for that matter.

Friday's high tide is about 40 minutes later (not so good), but the outgoing tide should be a bit more energetic (good).

Assuming things don't change too radically between now and then, and I don't get any responses that are too disappointing, I'll probably go at least one of those days.

Weaz · Since 23 May 2012 360 Posts Beaverton Obsessed

Clatskanie for tides. I usually use the astoria kelso temp and pressure differentials. Usually 10 degrees 0.04 inch W pressure is where jones seems to be blowing (of course the more pressure differance the better Smile

), There are occasions that the coastal wind shifts enough that actually cause a vacuum effect leaving jones high and dry of wind, rare but it does happen.

MikeZ · Wed Aug 29, 12 9:45 am

Not sure if it's the best location, but I've been looking at Longview, at:
http://gofishingforum.net

Seems to give decent results for Jones.

Weaz · Since 23 May 2012 360 Posts Beaverton Obsessed

I'll be heading there friday... if it seems to lack the wind maybe head another 30-40 minutes and get some postal coastal action.

Blazeheliski · Since 30 Mar 2011 659 Posts Mosier Addicted

Supposed to be closer to 80 degrees on Friday - I will probably head out on Friday if the forecast holds............

Dern · Since 11 Jul 2010 545 Posts Vancouver, WA Addicted

I've kept a very close tab on Jones all summer and there is essentially one key factor to predicting Jones - weather in Kelso (not the weather in Portland).

Portland can be hot as hell, sunny all day, etc., but if the clouds do not burn off over the Kelso/Longview area, Jones will not go. It just so happens that when Portland is experiencing a heat wave that Kelso often does as well. If the heat wave extends to the coast then the gradient doesn't build, but this is such a rarity that you only see it once or twice a summer (from my observations).

A rule of thumb that I have developed while watching the skies every day is that (in the summer months) wind at Jones will build to kiteable speeds ~2 hours after the cloud layer burns off of the Kelso area. This is reinforced by the fact that the temperatures in the Kelso area will remain under 75°F while under the cloud layer, typically, and rise up quickly after the sun has been beaming down for a bit. Of course, when the cloud layer doesn't burn off until 3PM, the sun doesn't heat things up as fast, and you get a weak temperature increase and thus weak pressure gradient from the coast to Kelso. Basically, if the clouds aren't gone before 3PM the wind is generally going to suck unless there are extraneous, non-thermal generated pressure differences in the area. You can somewhat predict the non-thermal gradients by looking at the coastal forecasts. High pressure in the NE Pacific Ocean is the typical phrase on NOAA forecasts for when the coast goes big, and this also will give Jones some wind, in addition to the Kelso-PDX corridor (Kalama, Woodland, Columbia City, Sauvies). A good indicator of this condition is the the Olympia - PDX pressure gradient, and it tends to generate a more N-NW wind direction.

Summary: Jones probably will not be blowing if it is still overcast in Kelso at 3PM. Portland temperatures and pressures are not a great indicator of Jones wind.

My 2 cents.

kochease · Since 03 Jul 2008 760 Posts In Ft. Stevens, OR Opinionated

Dern I agree with your 2 cents. I dont look at the pdx pressure gradient or temps for my forcasting. I also use kelso temp and the Astoria to Kelso pressure gradient. For non thermal winds a high pressure coast sometimes create some pretty big windy Jones days as well even if its raining and cloudy everywhere.

If you want a good solid windy Jones day with a thermal wind Kelso has to be sunny and warm.

beej · Since 16 Jul 2010 180 Posts Stoked

And what does your magic ball say for today? I need a day on the water!

D-Krep It Kiter · Since 18 Jul 2011 417 Posts Obsessed

Jonpnw · Thu Aug 30, 12 10:51 am

And how do you know if it is overcast in Longview? Hard to tell from the bridge cam.

http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/SR433/LewisClarkBridgePainter/camera.htm

MikeZ · Thu Aug 30, 12 11:14 am

Here's one way to check for cloud cover:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/?wfo=pqr

The top links in the table mid way down show 1km visible satellite imagery (still, and animations).

I haven't found any reliable Kelso/Longivew temp/pressure readings. The ones I know about have been flaky lately.

Anybody know of some good ones?

Weaz · Since 23 May 2012 360 Posts Beaverton Obsessed

top of the page, sensors, click jones beach.

either that or look for airport readings... astoria and kelso both have pressure for the altimeters for aircraft, usually in millibars though.

Kelso on that page has been flaky just for the past week or two, solid before that... i'm sure it'll be solid again.