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user124

Since 02 Aug 2012
391 Posts
Portland
Obsessed
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Sun Apr 19, 20 8:34 pm |
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Discussion of covid19 deaths and comparison to the flu are irrelevant. The whole idea of "flattening the curve" means the area under the curve is the same. The idea is to prevent a sudden increase in deaths such as not to overwhelm the hospitals. If the hospitals are overwhelmed then the case death rate goes from 1-2% to 10%+. In addition, many others die or suffer because they can't access medical care for other conditions.
That said I agree that the economy is suffocating and that is untenable and counterproductive. Case number in Oregon are low. Hospitals are at present far from overwhelmed. I hope the health authorities see this and feel we can relax restrictions soon.
But I also wonder if economic stimulus money could be better spent. I know some of the CARES act was allocated to COVID response, but it seems like the more the better. Money spent on expanding testing, contract tracing, quarantine and expanding hospital capacity for COVID patients will more than pay for itself if it allows us to relax restrictions and restart the economy. Someone else said deaths and economy is a false dichotomy. That's true but not for the reasons they mentioned. We need to get the pandemic under control for the economy to return to normal. Regardless of government mandates , no one is going to shop and resume normal activity if they are frightened to go out because of high chance of geting COVID19 and no chance of getting any care in a hospital if they get sick. |
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ay

Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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Mon Apr 20, 20 7:48 am |
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Agree with the above.
Capitalism/the economy isn't focused on fighting starvation, infectious disease, mental health, and social welfare. Government should be, but instead the current administration is cutting health funding, blaming everyone else for failures, and not taking responsibility. Relying on charitable giving to solve humanitarian crisis demonstrates how little we value humanity.
The US population is obviously tired of quarantining and it appears it will be ending soon for most regardless of scientific basis, in contrast to other more responsible countries. As an aside, seeing "liberate" protesters while wearing masks is comical. Typical hypocrisy. Last edited by ay on Mon Apr 20, 20 9:12 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Hein
Since 08 Mar 2005
1314 Posts
Possessed
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Mon Apr 20, 20 8:01 am |
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/sending-hospitals-into-bankruptcy-11587326607
I had an elective shoulder surgery which was originally scheduled for early March. I moved it up to early February when I saw the pandemic unfolding. Glad I did since I don't think I would have been able to get it done in March as originally planned. If I had waited then the repair I had done may not have been possible.
Millions of women are now not getting screened for breast cancer. How many cases will go undetected before its too late?
And then there is this statistic:
https://www.worldometers.info/abortions/
Over 300,000 abortions are performed by Planned Parenthood each year. Last edited by Hein on Mon Apr 20, 20 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total |
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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Mon Apr 20, 20 9:00 am |
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user124 wrote: | Discussion of covid19 deaths and comparison to the flu are irrelevant. |
I have been attempting to reconcile this statement.
It took me a while to figure it out.
Why are seasonal FLU deaths higher than COVID-19 Deaths?
My Friends and Family had two bouts with the FLU this year (technically once in November and once in January). I was lucky, however most around me got hit at least once, and some twice.
If we (as a nation) had continued to stay the course it is fair to say that my friends and family would also have been hit with COVID-19. It was really just a matter of timing as the Nation went into lockdown before COVID-19 had reached our area. _________________ Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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oliver19
Since 25 Jun 2019
84 Posts
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Mon Apr 20, 20 10:12 am |
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bigjohn wrote: | user124 wrote: | Discussion of covid19 deaths and comparison to the flu are irrelevant. |
I have been attempting to reconcile this statement.
It took me a while to figure it out.
Why are seasonal FLU deaths higher than COVID-19 Deaths?
My Friends and Family had two bouts with the FLU this year (technically once in November and once in January). I was lucky, however most around me got hit at least once, and some twice.
If we (as a nation) had continued to stay the course it is fair to say that my friends and family would also have been hit with COVID-19. It was really just a matter of timing as the Nation went into lockdown before COVID-19 had reached our area. |
Flu deaths are high because we don't go into lock down during flu season.
The best data out there is showing that the death rate from Covid is going to be similar to that of the flu. Around 0.1 to 0.3 % and much lower for healthy people. The lock downs were needed until we understood how bad Covid is and now we know that it is not as bad as feared. It is time to take a more selective approach instead of the shotgun approach of locking down everyone. Start letting people go back to work and let businesses open but have measures and restrictions in place to protect the vulnerable. |
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Hein
Since 08 Mar 2005
1314 Posts
Possessed
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Mon Apr 20, 20 10:14 am |
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Did you get a flu shot? Only about 40% of adults do. Yet no government mandate to get one. |
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eric
Since 13 Jan 2006
1861 Posts
XTreme Poster
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Mon Apr 20, 20 10:26 am |
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<<we know that it is not as bad as feared.>>
How bad is that? Looks pretty damn bad to me. |
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wylieflyote

Since 30 Jun 2006
1648 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
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Mon Apr 20, 20 10:49 am |
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eric wrote: | <<we know that it is not as bad as feared.>>
How bad is that? Looks pretty damn bad to me. |
It's this unknown that has all of us on edge. I'm in perfect health, but then daily I read of deaths of healthy people. This is the most panic-attack state of mind I've lived through.... 70 years. _________________ CGKA Member
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Kip Wylie |
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knotwindy
Since 25 Sep 2011
615 Posts
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Mon Apr 20, 20 11:07 am |
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Panic is exactly what you are supposed be doing. It lowers your immune response and makes you think less clearly. This makes you more malleable and easier to control. Keep up the good work  _________________ curiously observing blurry patterns while slightly distracted |
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Nak

Since 19 May 2005
4297 Posts
Camas
Site Lackey
CGKA Member
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Mon Apr 20, 20 12:00 pm |
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I wasn't trying to directly compare Covid-19 and the Flu. What I am trying to point out is that there are other concerns as well. I am NOT advocating stopping the fight against Covid-19 and returning to normal. I am trying to point out this all or nothing tactic is foolish and counter-productive. We can only maintain it for a short while longer. If we fight smarter, we can fight longer.
I am also trying to point out that thinking that one side or the other doesn't care about saving lives. That's B.S. It is a simple fact that if we go too extreme one way or the other, more people will die. I also reject the argument that 3 million children starving to death is a long term problem and that another million or two starving to death because of a damaged economy is acceptable. Perhaps it is because I have personally held children in my arms who almost certainly later died of starvation that I see these numbers as faces, and can not dismiss them as easily as others.
Lastly, I don't think comparing three Governors of the same party is overly partisan politics. I specifically chose those three because they were of the same party and all three affect many of our live's directly.
Washington is clearly doing a far worse job of this than Oregon. That's a fact. If Washington could do better, perhaps nothing is absolute and Oregon could do better as well. Refusing to even examine the subject is simply sticking your head in the sand. As I've said before, I agree with the initial response, get things shut down fast. But the examination of how to do better should have begun IMMEDIATELY after the shut down. The more businesses we can safely open, the longer we can fight. We all agree that eliminating restrictions too early would be a mistake.
I am simply proposing we examine how we might extend our ability to extend our fight. It is simple fact that every day we continue on our path, more people will die. Starvation counts. And sooner rather than later we will lose the ability to continue as we are. Then the disease will race unchecked anyway. That is also simple fact. It is another fact that if we stopped fighting immediately, more people would die. Obviously, we MUST fight smarter if our goal is to save lives. We have no choice if we truly want to save lives, and that is a fact as well. |
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user124

Since 02 Aug 2012
391 Posts
Portland
Obsessed
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Mon Apr 20, 20 3:26 pm |
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bigjohn wrote: | user124 wrote: | Discussion of covid19 deaths and comparison to the flu are irrelevant. |
I have been attempting to reconcile this statement.
It took me a while to figure it out.
Why are seasonal FLU deaths higher than COVID-19 Deaths?
My Friends and Family had two bouts with the FLU this year (technically once in November and once in January). I was lucky, however most around me got hit at least once, and some twice.
If we (as a nation) had continued to stay the course it is fair to say that my friends and family would also have been hit with COVID-19. It was really just a matter of timing as the Nation went into lockdown before COVID-19 had reached our area. |
I don't think seasonal flu deaths are higher than COVID19. Not sure where the numbers are coming from but US influenza seasonal deaths usually average around 40k. Estimates from this year aren't fully analyzed yet, but CDC is saying 24-62k deaths this year from infuenza in the US. We have already hit 40k COVID19 deaths in the US and based on the current number of infections we will definitely hit 60k and probably more like 80-100 by June.
I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but I'll take a crack at possible differences between the flu an COVID19 since I am bored and I can't kite.
1) Flu generally is more predictable as we see what happens in the southern hemisphere 6 months before so we can prepare
2) Flu season can be pretty bad and often times pushes ICUs to capacity, but at least we can prepare based on prior years and as in #1
4) Influenza mutates rapidly (more than sars cov2 we think), but there is some left over herd immunity from infection in prior years which slows spread.
5) there is a flu vaccine that is at least somewhat effective every year (although it varies), which also adds to herd immunity and slows spread
6) there are antivirals that are effective at treating influenza but none proven for covid19 yet.
7) Influenza is not nearly as contagious with an R0 of 1.3 or so vs covid19 which is thought to be around R0 of 3 without mitigation strategies. So once covid19 starts to spread, it spreads like wildfire and rapidly overwhelms health systems
Influenza is usually not as deadly as covid19, but can be in some years like 2012 swine flu and obviously can be really bad in some years, with the obvious example being 1918/1919.
And bigjohn I agree I am often amazed at how much non-kiting information I get on a kite forum. Hein I enjoy your links. Medcram videos are excellent and I had already seen that WSJ editorial this morning which was great as well, although I generally don't agree with WSJ ed board. Nak I agree with your statements as well. |
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knotwindy
Since 25 Sep 2011
615 Posts
Addicted
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Mon Apr 20, 20 6:41 pm |
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user124 wrote: | bigjohn wrote: | user124 wrote: | Discussion of covid19 deaths and comparison to the flu are irrelevant. |
I have been attempting to reconcile this statement.
It took me a while to figure it out.
Why are seasonal FLU deaths higher than COVID-19 Deaths?
My Friends and Family had two bouts with the FLU this year (technically once in November and once in January). I was lucky, however most around me got hit at least once, and some twice.
If we (as a nation) had continued to stay the course it is fair to say that my friends and family would also have been hit with COVID-19. It was really just a matter of timing as the Nation went into lockdown before COVID-19 had reached our area. |
I don't think seasonal flu deaths are higher than COVID19. Not sure where the numbers are coming from but US influenza seasonal deaths usually average around 40k. Estimates from this year aren't fully analyzed yet, but CDC is saying 24-62k deaths this year from infuenza in the US. We have already hit 40k COVID19 deaths in the US and based on the current number of infections we will definitely hit 60k and probably more like 80-100 by June.
I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but I'll take a crack at possible differences between the flu an COVID19 since I am bored and I can't kite.
1) Flu generally is more predictable as we see what happens in the southern hemisphere 6 months before so we can prepare
2) Flu season can be pretty bad and often times pushes ICUs to capacity, but at least we can prepare based on prior years and as in #1
4) Influenza mutates rapidly (more than sars cov2 we think), but there is some left over herd immunity from infection in prior years which slows spread.
5) there is a flu vaccine that is at least somewhat effective every year (although it varies), which also adds to herd immunity and slows spread
6) there are antivirals that are effective at treating influenza but none proven for covid19 yet.
7) Influenza is not nearly as contagious with an R0 of 1.3 or so vs covid19 which is thought to be around R0 of 3 without mitigation strategies. So once covid19 starts to spread, it spreads like wildfire and rapidly overwhelms health systems
Influenza is usually not as deadly as covid19, but can be in some years like 2012 swine flu and obviously can be really bad in some years, with the obvious example being 1918/1919.
And bigjohn I agree I am often amazed at how much non-kiting information I get on a kite forum. Hein I enjoy your links. Medcram videos are excellent and I had already seen that WSJ editorial this morning which was great as well, although I generally don't agree with WSJ ed board. Nak I agree with your statements as well. |
Although I agree with most of your conclusions, points 1 + 2 are fine. 4-7 have a lot of assumptions built in and are sketchy. #3 I agree with completely! _________________ curiously observing blurry patterns while slightly distracted |
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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Mon Apr 20, 20 7:06 pm |
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user124 wrote: | knotwindy wrote: | #3 I agree with completely! |
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We're making progess. Finally something we can agree on!!! _________________ Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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knotwindy
Since 25 Sep 2011
615 Posts
Addicted
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Mon Apr 20, 20 7:17 pm |
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bigjohn wrote: | user124 wrote: | knotwindy wrote: | #3 I agree with completely! |
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We're making progess. Finally something we can agree on!!! |
Don’t get too excited, we could still all be wrong  _________________ curiously observing blurry patterns while slightly distracted |
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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Mon Apr 20, 20 7:49 pm |
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user124 wrote: |
I don't think seasonal flu deaths are higher than COVID19. Not sure where the numbers are coming from but US influenza seasonal deaths usually average around 40k. Estimates from this year aren't fully analyzed yet, but CDC is saying 24-62k deaths this year from infuenza in the US. We have already hit 40k COVID19 deaths in the US and based on the current number of infections we will definitely hit 60k and probably more like 80-100 by June.
I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but I'll take a crack at possible differences between the flu an COVID19 since I am bored and I can't kite.
1) Flu generally is more predictable as we see what happens in the southern hemisphere 6 months before so we can prepare
2) Flu season can be pretty bad and often times pushes ICUs to capacity, but at least we can prepare based on prior years and as in #1
4) Influenza mutates rapidly (more than sars cov2 we think), but there is some left over herd immunity from infection in prior years which slows spread.
5) there is a flu vaccine that is at least somewhat effective every year (although it varies), which also adds to herd immunity and slows spread
6) there are antivirals that are effective at treating influenza but none proven for covid19 yet.
7) Influenza is not nearly as contagious with an R0 of 1.3 or so vs covid19 which is thought to be around R0 of 3 without mitigation strategies. So once covid19 starts to spread, it spreads like wildfire and rapidly overwhelms health systems
Influenza is usually not as deadly as covid19, but can be in some years like 2012 swine flu and obviously can be really bad in some years, with the obvious example being 1918/1919.
And bigjohn I agree I am often amazed at how much non-kiting information I get on a kite forum. Hein I enjoy your links. Medcram videos are excellent and I had already seen that WSJ editorial this morning which was great as well, although I generally don't agree with WSJ ed board. Nak I agree with your statements as well. |
Being as it is evening... One more day has passed in which I spent my spare time surfing the internet rather than surfing waves. I might as well try my own armchair quarterbacking as well...
1) Seasonal flu is ...well seasonal. Dies out (mostly) in the summer and comes back strong in the winter. COVID-19 does not appear to be affected by summertime heat.
2) We all know about the asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19. Sneaky little suckers as they don't provide the normal hints that Flu suffers provide.
4) And the completely unknowns... Can you get re-infected? How long does immunity last? When will mass testing be available? When will a vaccine be available? Does the virus mutate?
5) As this is such a political issue, are other countries fibbing their numbers to present a better political case for their political decisions?
6) While actual death rates are still really an unknown, it is known that some survivors describe the experience as one of the most painful experiences of their life. Others, for example, the asymptomatic have a much different experience. It appears there is considerable randomness as to how equally healthy people will react.
Does Influenza cause a lot of deaths each year? YES way more than I realized. Is COAVID-19 more dangerous? YES more than we probably realize.
Can I put a couple of letters in front of my name yet or is there more coursework required? _________________ Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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user124

Since 02 Aug 2012
391 Posts
Portland
Obsessed
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Mon Apr 20, 20 9:15 pm |
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All good points bigjohn. Knotwindy you are also correct there is a lot we don't know and a lot of assumptions. The only thing I can say with certainty is that a year from now we will look back and realize we were wrong about a lot of things with regard to this pandemic. I don't envy the public health advisers and decision makers. They are nearly flying blind with a lot of lives at stake. I guess we all need to try our best to be patient.
I don't know what happened to 3) in my list but I'm glad I was able to get everyone to agree on something on NWkite, which rarely seems to happen. I also now realize that typing 8 with a ) after it makes a sunglasses emoji  |
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Nak

Since 19 May 2005
4297 Posts
Camas
Site Lackey
CGKA Member
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Tue Apr 21, 20 8:48 am |
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Iceland seems to be fighting smart and winning. So far at least. At any rate, it's defies belief that our governors aren't studying Iceland's success and how they got there. I'm not implying that in a different situation we can match them exactly. On the other hand there are lessons to be learned from those that are doing a WAY better job of this than we are.
Hopefully most will accept that "The New England Journal Of Medicine" is a reliable source.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 |
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