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Enough is Enough!!!!!
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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macgruber

Since 06 Dec 2011
415 Posts
SE PDX volcano
Obsessed



PostFri Aug 31, 18 5:47 am     Reply with quote

Mostly satisfied 20 year ikitesurf subscriber. I just wish they could get a Clatsop spit/ Shipwreck meter that works!

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Inflictor

Since 17 Aug 2013
69 Posts

 



PostFri Aug 31, 18 5:59 am    They're Gone Reply with quote

sorry, knew it was too good to be true, bummed, what's left works fine if you keep an eye on it.Big John,Laird and especially Eric have the points that need to be made. A,K. you make sense, we're all freakin nuts about the wind,( that's why we all come here) and I'm going crazy seeing it happen when maybe I could help do something about it? Hmmmm

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ErraticAKn

Since 08 Jul 2011
567 Posts

Addicted



PostFri Aug 31, 18 6:21 am     Reply with quote

I guess I'm lucky in that I learned way more than I ever wanted to about weather predictions working in the aviation logistics field on the north slope and being a certified weather observer. I do my own predictions everywhere I go, it takes just a few minuted of gathering data and I'm done. My forecasts are good and I rarely get them so wrong that I miss a session.

It's not for everyone and I'll concede that. However - I maintain that if you can't help yourself, don't go off the deep-end complaining when the person or service you reply on ins't accurate enough.

Self sufficiency is what we teach and promote in this sport.

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www.venturedsome.com
www.freeridekiting.com

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eric

Since 13 Jan 2006
1312 Posts

XTreme Poster



PostFri Aug 31, 18 6:34 am     Reply with quote

^^^

Sure, and I doubt anyone doesn't have a good deal of respect for your ability to do so. I certainly do.

But, others spend their work day doing other things: prescribing rx, fixing alternators, driving forklifts, teaching 5 year olds how to stand in line etc

These folks have paid for a service that advertises "professional forecasts." That's really my only point.

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I only kite if I am alone, or with somebody else.

GO BEARS!

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ldhr

Since 21 Jul 2009
1073 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster



PostFri Aug 31, 18 7:28 am     Reply with quote

Yep - the sites are no longer available on the NWS map.
Iwind must have broken the link after reading about it here.

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
26 Posts

 



PostFri Aug 31, 18 7:38 am     Reply with quote

It would be interesting to see forecast verification statistics. The trick is agreeing on the metrics. Does "WNW 16-20mph from 2-4pm" mean the average wind speed at the sensor is between 16-20mph for that period or the lull to gust range will be between that range or is there some period between 2-4pm where the wind is in that range?

Hiring Victor for forecasting, ground truth and field observations would be awesome.

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
397 Posts

Obsessed



PostFri Aug 31, 18 9:35 am     Reply with quote

gtm wrote:
It would be interesting to see forecast verification statistics. ....
Hiring Victor for forecasting, ground truth and field observations would be awesome.


1) Yes the daily Victor ground observation would be a nice addition.

2) While I am one of those who would like verification statistics I caution those (not referring to gtm here) that see this as a tool to hold our forecasters accountable as a measurement of the money we spend. Rather, I believe it would be just another tool in the decision making arsenal.

There are two questions I want answered from a forecast:
1) Where do I kite?
2) What size kite do I put up.

For item two many of you say "just look at the water", but that doesn't tell you whether to rig big or small. Is the wind going to pick up, stay the same, or decrease?

Forecasts (should) provide you insight into these last minute decisions. It comes down to a matter of trust. Having a tool to help you analyze how much to trust TODAY's forecast is relevant. Having a tool to bitch about how inaccurate the forecasts are in general is not really all that relevant in my opinion.

Speaking of trust... If the human forecast,HRRR, WRF, and Victor's onsight analysis all align then I'm gonna rig big baby!!!

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mowing the river like Jack Nicklaus was comin to town.

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moondog

Since 15 Aug 2007
458 Posts
white salmon
Obsessed

CGKA Member


PostFri Aug 31, 18 5:19 pm     Reply with quote

I always add 5-8 mph to all of ikite and Temira's forecasts, seems to be fairly accurate. I spent 40 years depending on weather forecast for my job and decided Mother Nature is in charge of the weather, not forecasters. The two hardest months for them were October and May. These are the transition months between seasons and Mother Nature is a fickle woman!
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moondog

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ErraticAKn

Since 08 Jul 2011
567 Posts

Addicted



PostFri Aug 31, 18 9:12 pm     Reply with quote

Pilots know best...

moondog wrote:
I always add 5-8 mph to all of ikite and Temira's forecasts, seems to be fairly accurate. I spent 40 years depending on weather forecast for my job and decided Mother Nature is in charge of the weather, not forecasters. The two hardest months for them were October and May. These are the transition months between seasons and Mother Nature is a fickle woman!

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www.venturedsome.com
www.freeridekiting.com

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shred_da_gorge

Since 12 Nov 2008
773 Posts

Opinionated



PostSat Sep 01, 18 4:27 am     Reply with quote

Interesting in ldhr's screenshot that Spanish wind farm company IBERDROLA is the provider of the data for Swell City.

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Hulk

Since 17 Feb 2017
26 Posts
Portland, OR
 



PostSat Sep 01, 18 6:19 am     Reply with quote

I'm not sure what everyone's so worked up about here...

It's weather. One can spend decades studying how to forecast it and still a) not be 100% accurate and b) have more to learn.

In 3 pages of posts, only one mention of Temira and her site? Between her and iKite, I've had 2-3 sessions a week, with a full-time job, young family, drive from PDX, and other considerations. I have not been skunked once this year (save for KB4C, but kiting's only part of the fun there). Have the wind speeds always verified? Of course not. But what else? It's kiteboarding, the whole damn quiver fits in the back of a sedan. Bring it all with you and you don't have t worry about the rigging until you see the conditions. Does the Gorge go from mellow to nuking fast? Sure. We know it does, and so we have to plan for it. That's what makes Gorge kiters more competent than those that just get to kite in 84-degree water in the trade winds.

I don't know Victor and I'm sure he has a wealth of experience and knowledge to offer, but that original post read like it was written by someone throwing a tantrum. If you think you've got something valuable to add to the community, for sure, get it out there and charge for it. But unless it's as user-friendly as the other options (namely: mobile-optimized) then I'll continue to be a happy iKite and Temira subscriber.

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niknas

Since 18 Sep 2006
135 Posts
North of OR, South of WA
Stoked



PostSat Sep 01, 18 7:17 am    It’s going to be windy today, somewhere. Reply with quote


Yep... it’s going to be windy today, somewhere.
http://niknas.com

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Current weather and Cam from Underwood WA

Last edited by niknas on Tue Sep 04, 18 5:48 am; edited 1 time in total

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west

Since 09 Oct 2008
87 Posts
Lake Michigan
 



PostSat Sep 01, 18 7:40 am     Reply with quote

I find it quite hilarious that sailors are using the forecasts to decide which kite to rig. It reminds me of watching someone pull out a wind meter at the beach to determine how hard it’s blowing....

Victor’s initial post was stating the lack of “common sense” and lack of awareness that fuels the system....we’re talking about the Gorge here; one of the windiest, most predictable patterns that exist on the planet; that’s why Hood River exploded into the wind capital it is today.


It practically blows everyday, in the Gorge or at the Coast..look at the clouds, be aware of the temperatures, be willing to drive, and appreciate it when you run across a shaman....but most importantly enjoy the water in the well, it’s never empty!

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ivog2001

Since 29 Jul 2011
16 Posts
PNW
 



PostSat Sep 01, 18 10:14 am     Reply with quote

To me the long term forecast from Ikite/wind is the main problem. The 24-36h is great, but the rest is shot in the dark. Example, as of this morning they are calling upper 20s. from the West for Tuesday. All the computer models are showing East winds on Tues. So, if from now I plan to take the day off to go to Rufus for example and trust today's forecast I will get screwed most likely. Some people that don't live around HR make their kiting/ sailing decisions 2-3 days in advance. And for that the forecast is not very helpful. As ldhr said it is Good forecast and Great live (real time) wind sensors.....

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
397 Posts

Obsessed



PostSat Sep 01, 18 7:04 pm     Reply with quote

ivog2001 wrote:
To me the long term forecast from Ikite/wind is the main problem. The 24-36h is great, but the rest is shot in the dark. Example, as of this morning they are calling upper 20s. from the West for Tuesday. All the computer models are showing East winds on Tues. So, if from now I plan to take the day off to go to Rufus for example and trust today's forecast I will get screwed most likely. Some people that don't live around HR make their kiting/ sailing decisions 2-3 days in advance. And for that the forecast is not very helpful. As ldhr said it is Good forecast and Great live (real time) wind sensors.....


My personal opinion is to always trust the computer forecasts over human forecasts for long range. I don't see how it is possible that a human forecaster could see patterns and associations better than a computer model a few days out. The GFS model is a pretty good tool for simply determining what days will be windy and also perhaps an initial concept regarding where to go.

However same day forecasts I give the human forecasters some merit. I recall a number of times (definitely not always) where the human forecaster beat the computer models (even the short range models like HRRR and WRF).

Tuesday looks very questionable to me for the Gorge (Go to the Coast instead), and Wednesday looks like a good day for boating.

edit 9/2/18 - As of Sunday, Medium term NAM is calling for kiteable easterlies at Stevenson on Wednesday. Tuesday is looking unlikely to be kiteable in The Gorge but coast still looks good for Tuesday - end edit.

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mowing the river like Jack Nicklaus was comin to town.

Last edited by bigjohn on Sun Sep 02, 18 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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docwild

Since 02 Sep 2015
69 Posts

 



PostSun Sep 02, 18 5:54 am     Reply with quote

My big gripe with IKite is they don't know how to use apostrophes correctly.

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docwild

Since 02 Sep 2015
69 Posts

 



PostSun Sep 02, 18 5:54 am     Reply with quote

My big gripe with IKite is they don't know how to use apostrophes correctly.

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