coast on North vs. NW

coastalsoul · Since 10 Aug 2008 26 Posts Vancouver, BC

Hola,

Other than the obvious (side vs side on)

what are the distinctions of kiting

or more particularly weather and waves

when the forecast for north coast (Shipwrecks, Manz) is more North than NW.

if it is more North is there less fog or more, is it more "iffy" or better likely to blow,

Is it more solid in NW conditions than northly (my suspicion).

Its a long way to go from Vancouver, canada if its not "on", (eh)

tia

R

pjc · Since 06 Mar 2005 649 Posts Addicted

I ride the south coast, not the north coast, but I think the patterns are roughly similar...

the NW forecast (*without* calling for showers) is what you want. if it's calling for 20+ NW winds for 3-4 days in a row then it's pretty reliable. N/NW to W/NW forecasts are all the same, just look lots of wind several days in a row.

the fog is harder to predict - it can change very quickly. super hot days in the willamette valley tend to bring the fog, but no-one can say for sure. worst case with fog is it's cold and gusty and hard to see stuff, but people still ride.

someone from the n coast might help you out with more fine-grained info, but what i describe above is the general pattern for OR coastal summertime riding.

Windian · Since 28 Apr 2008 902 Posts Newport, OR NEWPORT OG

Wind direction doesn't really change that much whether NWS is calling for north or northwest winds. The only time it turns more westerly is when it is wintertime storm front passages which is for the most part BS conditions with ice cold wind and rain squalls.

The isobars (pressure gradient lines) are the whole story as to whether it is forecasted as NW or N or NE winds. If the isobars are running parallel to the Oregon coast then it is an onshore flow (NW winds) with a very good chance of fog and most likely good conditions in the Gorge. If the isobars are crossing the coast, then this is a much better scenario for coastal north winds and the more perpendicular to the coast the less likely to get fog. The more isobars crossing the coast from the Washington border to the Cal border the stronger the wind will be.

There is a lot more to weather/north wind prediction than these general rules, but this may assist you in getting started with wind analysis and not just relying on the forecasted stuff coming out of ikitesurf.com and other agencies.

Check out this website as it is what are the pros use for forcasting everything, not just wind:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/

Idea

scottnorby · Fri Jul 17, 09 6:38 pm

I am no scientist but I do watch this every day.
If I am not surfing or kiting I am out on my gillnet boat fishing and I watch it go down day after day.
It's definitely not as easy as watching the news.

If it's calling for over 20 on the north coast you will definitely have wind....but it's going to be more weather related (pressure, weather etc) and less micro climate thermal. Generally those winds build fast and heavy and will be gustier.

If they are calling for north wind then Manzo can be even gustier as the wind makes it's way around the headlands.

If it's hot in the valley and the ocean temps are cool---and the prediction is for 12 mph or so it will probably blow more like 15 to 20 due to the thermal action.

Cold air rushes in to fill in below the rising hot air in the valley.

Thermals are consistent---and don't always show on the charts.....and almost NEVER show on the predictions----because they are not 'weather' but instead a micro climate.

A good example of thermal wind is in la ventana.
The desert valley heats up all day and then rises in the afternoon.....lifting the cooler ocean water toward land..
In La Ventana there is a very obvious thermal effect and when the prediction is 12mph it can blow 25 to 30.

I will say that the most accurate weather seems to be NOAA. They really nail it about 80 percent of the time. And the other 20 percent is just random fluky shit like wintertime craziness. Summer time they are really close ....but even they cannot nail the thermal effect which adds to the wind speed.

The biggest factor I have been watching lately is swell direction and wind direction working against or with eachother.

If there is a south swell and north wind the waves will have a more offshore wind look to them and be held up longer----sometimes even smaller due to the wind pushing back.

If it is a west swell and a north/nw wind the wind swell and groundswell often combine to make for a larger swell than predicted (look at the COMBINED SEAS report for those sizes)

And if it is NW swell with north/nw wind it can go either way....but many times the wind will literally blow the swells over out in the deep water and essentially stop them from building.
But if the swell has a large interval (over ten seconds) then the wind can build the swell.

It's a lot to take in.

And again I am no scientist.

You have to take risks to get it good here on the ocean---but when you do it's so worth it.

Bailey · Since 13 Apr 2008 87 Posts

Well, do you think the N. coast will be a good bet this weekend.

Chooch · Fri Jul 17, 09 9:40 pm

Forecast looks good.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=CWF&sid=PQR

Come check out the party at Jones on Saturday ( http://www.nwkite.com/forums/t-14054.html ) and then hit some downwinders at Ft. Stevens on Sunday with the crew Thumb's Up

arkay · Since 06 Jun 2008 192 Posts Manzo/Hillsburrito Stoked

as per noaa.. manzo is 13/16/20.. mmmm and pretty cm water too