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Jones Forecast for this Saturday 8/29

 
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cnett

Since 23 Aug 2010
114 Posts
PDX
Stoked



PostFri Aug 28, 20 10:59 am    Jones Forecast for this Saturday 8/29 Reply with quote

Hey All,

I always have trouble forecasting Jones beach and was wondering if anyone has any insight for Saturday (8/29). The Kelso 48 looks good except the temps are going to be a bit below 70F. There is a temp gradient between Astoria and Portland for Saturday, but less than 10 degrees (68F Astoria --> 76F Portland).

What do you think? Will Jones be windy Saturday afternoon.

Appreciate any tips on how to better forecast Jones. I seem to get skunked a lot when I go there.

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FreerideWhiteSalmon

Since 17 May 2012
64 Posts

 

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PostFri Aug 28, 20 9:46 pm     Reply with quote

I’m not good at forecasting Jones, however late in the season seems to be a problem...like once it’s late August it’s hit and miss at this point.

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FreerideWhiteSalmon

Since 17 May 2012
64 Posts

 

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PostFri Aug 28, 20 9:49 pm     Reply with quote

WindAlert likes it for tomorrow - consider signing up since this is a paid service:

Lower Columbia/Western Gorge: Marine clouds take until around noon to break up for Jones Beach, where we'll see mid-teens WNW in the morning and low-20's WNW in the mid and late afternoon. Stevenson will be dealing with low clouds through most or all of the morning and possibly lingering into the early afternoon - leading to somewhat up and down (and gusty) low to spotty mid-20's WSW-SW winds. Those winds won't wait for the sun to start revving up, either, as I expect it to be modestly windy through the overnight as well.

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MikeZ

Since 17 Jul 2012
202 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
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PostFri Aug 28, 20 10:41 pm     Reply with quote

From a message I posted several years ago - with modifications...

The Jones Beach predictors are pretty well known:

1) onshore pressure gradient between Astoria and Portland/Kelso
2) a good temperature gradient between Astoria and Portland/Kelso
3) clouds burned off at least past Jones

You can forecast the first two by looking at the UW WRF forecasts. For my work we actually have what I consider to be easier and more informative graphics, but I can't share these online. For a really good day you'll see the pressure lines stacked up along the coast, mostly parallel with it.

Pressure and temperature are usually predicted pretty well by models. Clouds (low marine clouds and higher clouds) aren't always predicted so well. It's a good idea to check on those on the day you're interested in before heading out.

The clouds you can see looking at the weather service visible satellite imagery. The nwwind web site used to show gradients all in one place, but that site appears dead. You can get the pressure and temperature readings for Astoria/Kelso/Portland from the NWS forecast pages.

If you see the temperature peak and then begin to fall early at Astoria, and the wind shift and come from the west, then that's usually a good sign that Jones is going to go.

If it goes really big, and lasts late into the evening (morning?), then there may be too much cool marine air east of the coast range for Jones to be good the next day. But if that happens, then that second day will often be a one in the gorge.

With a little practice, you can get pretty reliable results. There are lots of days that look like they could go either way, and many turn out good (or great). But I don't think I've been skunked for years at Jones, since I usually only go out for the days that look solid. And there are lots of those.

Last edited by MikeZ on Fri Aug 28, 20 10:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

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MikeZ

Since 17 Jul 2012
202 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
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PostFri Aug 28, 20 10:51 pm     Reply with quote

I guess I didn't really address tomorrow (Saturday). Like FreerideWhiteSalmon said, later in August and into September can be trickier to predict.

The predictors look ok for tomorrow, but probably not as good as today. And since it went pretty big today, and is still blowing hard at nearly midnight, I would make sure to watch how things develop tomorrow. The clouds may stick around too late to really let Jones get going well.

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Marcus O

Since 30 May 2018
56 Posts

 



PostSat Aug 29, 20 7:31 am     Reply with quote

iKite says:

Lower Columbia/Western Gorge: Marine clouds take until around noon to break up for Jones Beach, where we'll see mid-teens WNW in the morning and low-20's WNW in the mid and late afternoon.

Temira says:

Jones Saturday: 20-23

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wylieflyote

Since 30 Jun 2006
1515 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
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PostSat Aug 29, 20 8:34 am     Reply with quote

I'll be there at 2. But then... my foiling stuff happens at 8mph and up.
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Kip Wylie

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cnett

Since 23 Aug 2010
114 Posts
PDX
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PostTue Sep 01, 20 10:01 am     Reply with quote

Thanks all for the tips and clarification. That was exactly what I was looking for to better understand the Jones forecast. I ended up have a great day all afternoon on Saturday. A solid 9/10 M into the early evening.
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wylieflyote

Since 30 Jun 2006
1515 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
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PostWed Sep 02, 20 6:36 am     Reply with quote

cnett wrote:
Thanks all for the tips and clarification. That was exactly what I was looking for to better understand the Jones forecast. I ended up have a great day all afternoon on Saturday. A solid 9/10 M into the early evening.


Did you see that foiler guy on the single skin Flysurfer 4m and a tiniest 22" pocket board. WOW!

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Kip Wylie

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