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Arrgh stir crazy we need a new system
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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MikeZ

Since 17 Jul 2012
195 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked



PostMon Apr 20, 20 4:34 pm    Re: localism Reply with quote

wannabekiter wrote:
Sorry could not resist
You have to live and WORK here full time to be a local.

Have to actually WORK there?

Sorry, HR retirees and trust fund babies, that leaves you out. No kiting for you.

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McLovin

Since 11 Sep 2017
137 Posts
Corbett
Stoked



PostTue Apr 21, 20 12:13 am    Rooster for ONE - Part Duex Reply with quote

BigJohn - for the record that ^^^ picture is from fall of 2018

Yes, Rooster is CLOSED just like everywhere...

My gear has been in the garage too - hoping for a change for the better but realistically preparing for a longer than ideal delay...reminds me of ADULT SWIM from childhood, only much more serious.

Lots of BOATS on the river by my place - just saying...

Mc



PS - and Slither you are correct the VS are not to be trifled with...ALWAYS guard your flank

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wylieflyote

Since 30 Jun 2006
1470 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
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PostTue Apr 21, 20 7:27 am     Reply with quote

I assume Army Corp of Engineer sites like Roosevelt are closed? A group of us Seattle/Tacoma kiters traditionally come for Memorial Day.
I would stay/cook/sleep in my tent 10 yards from anyone, sit in beach chairs drinking beer 10 yards distance.

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Kip Wylie

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niknas

Since 18 Sep 2006
155 Posts
North of OR, South of WA
Stoked



PostTue Apr 21, 20 7:57 am     Reply with quote

Yesterday around 5 a solo kiter self launched from the grassy area at the Event Site. Kind of a ballsy move on his part. I wonder what part of The Event Site is closed he didn’t understand? It is easy to look the other way when Kiters walk in a and launch from the sandbar or even the Hook. Give me a break, this kind of behavior casts a bad light on kiters in general. If your going to break the rules don’t be so blatant about it.

Perhaps if I was young and dumb I would be doing the same.

Nik

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Current weather and Cam from Underwood WA

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shred_da_gorge

Since 12 Nov 2008
876 Posts

Opinionated



PostTue Apr 21, 20 2:24 pm    Re: localism Reply with quote

wannabekiter wrote:
Sorry could not resist
You have to live and WORK here full time to be a local.
Most of us don't have a week end house in the gorge.
We bust our asses to have just one.
Stay in portland

To be clear, I've never lived in Portland and I hate cities.
I work remote in a global role, based in HR only part-time since I met my wife.
My home in Hood River is not a weekend house nor a rental or airbnb.
Did rent it cheap once to a friend in need (who was born in Hood River, has a biz there).
I'm self-made; was given nothing and will gladly go toe-to-toe w you on sacrifice and ass busting.
In everyplace I've ever lived, the people bringing growth were always the assholes ruining the place.

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flipper

Since 17 Oct 2011
274 Posts

Obsessed



PostTue Apr 21, 20 4:19 pm     Reply with quote

So the curve is flattened, but maybe now too much. We're going to get to a pinch point where we get back to normal just to launch a second wave of the virus. I think waiting for a vaccine is a pipe dream at this point.

I propose starting tomorrow:
1. Open all parks, the Event Site, and nonessential businesses on all even days of the week.
2. Social distancing still yes.
3. Masks still yes
4. Techno dance clubs still no.

The virus will be kicking around waiting for us, might as well fill up the hospitals a bit more so we're not wasting clock cycles.

PS- Old fat people with health problems, you still stay home and let someone shop for you.

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Thatspec

Since 17 Mar 2008
70 Posts
Ptucky
 



PostFri Apr 24, 20 7:37 pm     Reply with quote

flipper wrote:


PS- Old fat people with health problems, you still stay home and let someone shop for you.


Finally, someone has the balls to say it out loud...
Having spoken with my old folks about it, they don't want what's happening on their behalf.

Oh yea, and........ Sweden!

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brass

Since 15 Jul 2006
141 Posts

Stoked



PostSat Apr 25, 20 6:43 am     Reply with quote

Thatspec wrote:
flipper wrote:


PS- Old fat people with health problems, you still stay home and let someone shop for you.


Finally, someone has the balls to say it out loud...
Having spoken with my old folks about it, they don't want what's happening on their behalf.

Oh yea, and........ Sweden!


I have officially lost faith in this forum. Both of these comments are just as pathetic as the insinuation that those of us who are following the guidelines are somehow sheepish and ignorant which is rampant here as well.

We are not Sweden and the verdict will be out sometime for that strategy. For starters, they have a state epidemiologist, healthcare for every citizen and some level of infrastructure to go with that. What do we have? There are so many other differences (cultural, political and more) that a comparison to the US is not apples to apples.

Suggesting that old and fat are only at risk of getting sick with anything and to suggest that they just have someone shop for them is not only a dick thing to say but it's wrong- tongue in cheek or not.

When things open up feel free to make your own choices but maybe we can just try to be a little less selfish when they do and remember that just because you are not sick it doesn't mean you have no responsibility to those that are or could become sick. The Swedes have this mindset baked into their culture that is also far from perfect.

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wylieflyote

Since 30 Jun 2006
1470 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster



PostSat Apr 25, 20 7:24 am     Reply with quote

flipper wrote:

PS- Old fat people with health problems, you still stay home and let someone shop for you.


I wish you had not included your cute little PS. I just turned 70, been windsurfing and kiting the world for 30+ years. Not fat... but I've had a fun ride with this unit and there's likely some unknown hidden issue in there somewhere. Your broad brush comment is insulting, and guess what: Young slim "healthy" studs like you also die as well as carry. So don't ban me from the E Site on your basis of white hair.
Kip Wylie

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Kip Wylie

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Thatspec

Since 17 Mar 2008
70 Posts
Ptucky
 



PostSat Apr 25, 20 7:42 am     Reply with quote

brass wrote:

I have officially lost faith in this forum.


You shouldn't, you're in good company. I seem to be more the outlier here. The difference being I've removed emotion from my analysis and focused solely on verifiable data.

As of the this morning, UW's IHME has Oregon grouped in with New York and New Jersey as to when we should be able to start easing our social distancing guidelines Shocked That's May 27th btw, how they arrived at that correlation I would be interested to see.

Yet by their own admission, "Models are inherently subject to error since they are based on numerous assumptions that scientists can only make educated guesses about right now"

From the Oxford U study recently linked to here we have some historical facts to go by;
"Evaluating CFR during a pandemic is, however, a very hazardous exercise, and high-end estimates should be treated with caution as the H1N1 pandemic highlights that original estimates were out by a factor greater than 10."

These are the scientists our Governor will rely on to make decisions that have a huge
impact on our lives. Hmmm, are you they just trying to cover their asses to not get sued?

Now I insist that the pointless emotional Henny Pennying cease here!

Last edited by Thatspec on Sat Apr 25, 20 8:18 am; edited 1 time in total

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Thatspec

Since 17 Mar 2008
70 Posts
Ptucky
 



PostSat Apr 25, 20 8:00 am     Reply with quote

wylieflyote wrote:
Your broad brush comment is insulting


Yea it is, and I'm sorry I backed it up Wylie. What is equally insulting to me is the constant drumbeat here that the sky is falling or even might fall when that case is clearly not borne out by the facts. We will make the sky fall if we continue on the current course.

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eric

Since 13 Jan 2006
1594 Posts

XTreme Poster



PostSat Apr 25, 20 9:07 am     Reply with quote

https://youtu.be/zXtrgih0PsI

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
538 Posts

Addicted



PostSat Apr 25, 20 9:24 am     Reply with quote

Thatspec wrote:

As of the this morning, UW's IHME has Oregon grouped in with New York and New Jersey as to when we should be able to start easing our social distancing guidelines Shocked That's May 27th btw, how they arrived at that correlation I would be interested to see.



I'm pretty sure they were modeling that using the GFS model. I think when they apply HRRR or WRF models against the data we will gain a much clearer picture.

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user124

Since 02 Aug 2012
328 Posts
Portland
Obsessed



PostSat Apr 25, 20 10:14 am     Reply with quote

bigjohn wrote:
Thatspec wrote:

As of the this morning, UW's IHME has Oregon grouped in with New York and New Jersey as to when we should be able to start easing our social distancing guidelines Shocked That's May 27th btw, how they arrived at that correlation I would be interested to see.



I'm pretty sure they were modeling that using the GFS model. I think when they apply HRRR or WRF models against the data we will gain a much clearer picture.


The UW recommendation is based on slowing spread 1 new case per million, or about 4 new cases per day in Oregon. Regardless of the model it will probably be a while before we reach such a low level of spread, especially as we are now expanding criteria for testing (a good thing, but will skew the statistics). My suspicion is the OHA will not wait that long as they are employing 150-600 contact tracers who should be able to handle more than 4 cases per day.

Regarding those of you offended by the "p.s. old and fat stay home" comment, I admit that was a callous way of commenting. But the virus doesn't care about your feelings. The statistics are very clear that older age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, underlying cardiovascular disease and other medical issues put you at higher risk for hospitalization and death. If the goal is to prevent overloading the hospitals and thereby keep the death rate down, those at higher risk really should stay home.

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user124

Since 02 Aug 2012
328 Posts
Portland
Obsessed



PostSat Apr 25, 20 10:22 am     Reply with quote

Thatspec wrote:

These are the scientists our Governor will rely on to make decisions that have a huge
impact on our lives. Hmmm, are you they just trying to cover their asses to not get sued?


I think the scientists are just trying to be conservative because there are so many unknowns. Prior infection may not confer immunity. There is a good chance we won't develop a vaccine. People who get infected and don't die because of lung problems may later develop other problems (see reports of people in their 30's and 40's COVID positive and having massive strokes). Viruses have been known to wipe out entire species and cause extinction. Not to be all doom and gloom, but this is just reality. It might also be fine and the virus could mutate to a something more like the common cold. But we just don't know at this point.

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