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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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 Sat Apr 18, 20 5:40 pm |
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| I don't need to influence Gov. Brown or Inslee because they are making the right decision. As is the Port of HR. Good job to everybody respecting rules and staying off the water today (at least from my vantage point).
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
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| Sat Apr 18, 20 7:27 pm |
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What NAK said
Let's work together towards solutions that make sense and take all concerns into consideration...
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Obakarama
Since 29 Jun 2019
47 Posts
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shred_da_gorge
Since 12 Nov 2008
1337 Posts
Da Hood & Da Wood
XTreme Poster
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| Sat Apr 18, 20 8:27 pm |
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"We’ve got a test with a one in three chance of a false negative"
This blows me away, that the news reports you can have a 'recurrence' after some people test negative and then positive again... with these shitty tests that the news frequently shows some nurses not even swabbing properly.
We make the mistaken belief the crap we hear on the news comes from 'scientists'.
I'm currently living with three nurses working directly with the infected population. If there's anywhere I'm likely to get it... it's not the sandbar.
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Matt V
Since 26 Oct 2014
462 Posts
Summer- OR Coast, Winter - My van near good snow
Explosive Diarrhea
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 6:20 am |
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[quote="Nak"] | ay wrote: |
| Matt V wrote: |
If the modern economy fails, almost no one will die from that failure. |
I wish that was true. Unfortunately history teaches us different. Picture Venezuela, but instead the poverty and riots are world wide. Governments will blame other countries to stay in power. Wars will erupt. Even countries that have the capacity to feed themselves will see opportunity in the chaos and wars will start. No one will give a shit about the environment and global warming will accelerate. Sure, CO2 output is down now, but wait until everyone is burning anything at hand to stay warm. Further chaos will result caused by the fall out of climate change. Further wars will erupt. What do you think was the the result of the last Great Depression? Picture WWII with nuclear weapons. Almost no one will die? Even a VERY conservative guess is tens of millions will die, if not hundreds of millions. Or more.
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That is an absolutely false comparison. The issues in Venezuela are NOT related to any virus with a 1-5% mortality rate. That countries issues are caused by:
1. Being a net importer of food
2. Horrible economic decisions made by its government
3. Sanctions imposed by the west designed to make those horrible decisions cost even more of the lives of the Venezuelan people
4. Regime change goals of the west for Venezuela
The corona virus gloom and doom theorists have a few gaping holes in thier future predictions. China exemplifies the biggest one - losing a large portion of your elderly burden is a BENIFIT to their economy! It also reduces food consumption, and will result in a net decrease in medical care expenditures.
But as far as food supplies in the west, there will likely be no net effect. Mechanized farming feeds many more people with less skill required than it took just 50 years ago. Not to mention farming is the almost the biggest social distance occupation. Animal husbandry has also been seperated to a larger degree, from grain producing farms. This lessens the human to livestock back to human infection issue. So no real worries there either.
And what does history teach us about the Spanish flu? Wars are often put on hold or ended when a greater threat starts to take hold.
The thing that scares me the most about the Corona virus is how its emergence has exposed the frailty and weak mindedness of the average westerner's psyche. If there were a real problem facing humanity, like a sudden climactic shift or a virus with a 20% mortality rate across all age groups........I am thinking Mad Max full on insanity with a incidental death rate if 50% in addition to the death rate of the virus or natural disaster.
Maybe the luxury of the west is the Great Filter itself.
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knotwindy
Since 25 Sep 2011
615 Posts
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 6:30 am |
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Yea, almost to stage 4
Stage 1 Denial
Stage 2 Fear
Stage 3 Panic (you are here)
Stage 4 Rational thought & potentially appropriate action
Basic science
Koch postulates & Bradford Hill criteria
Complicated, you can google them, but basically for a causation there needs to be;
1)If you have the bug, you get the disease. This one is tricky because you can be
subclinical or a carrier.
2)If you don’t have the bug, you don’t have the disease.
3)if you isolate the bug & give it to another they get the disease
Seems simple but it’s not. As with HIV & AIDS viruses are very tricky. They are not really alive but they reproduce so wtf?
This leads to all kinds of problems with testing. COVID19 is not the bug. It stands for Corona Virus Disease 2019. It is the group of symptoms you get, cough, fever, pneumonia, etc. There is NO test for this & there won’t/can’t be, it is just a group of symptoms that happen together because of an underlying cause.
SARS CoVi 2 is supposedly the bug. Stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus the second. If you have followed modern medicine for any length of time you will know that anything that ends in syndrome translates to;
We don’t know the cause or therefore how to treat it but these symptoms go together a lot. Not a lot of help there either.
Other Corona virus and there are a lot of them when severe tend to lead to ARDS, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Again, syndrome and this is where the trouble really starts. According to the docs in China and New York this Corona virus does not lead to that and they seem to be treating the patients incorrectly because of this. The symptoms seems much more like ‘altitude sickness’, fluid in the lungs instead so the treatment should be different than from pneumonia.
If you have read this far, all of this is just to explain why the testing will never work. The one test that might have worked was for the RNA strand itself except they are just testing for a small piece of that strand not the whole. And that small snippet shows in a lot of people from other sources and does not cause any disease that they can identify. The testing is almost completely useless regardless of the results even if they could get statistics and actual numbers. And no they can’t even do that due to lack of test(which wouldn’t matter anyway), false positives & negatives, and muddling the numbers on purpose. If you do get tested and the test shows positive and you die of something else the death certificate still will say COVID 19.
All of the numbers you are reading are wrong. The only real questions left are
Why is this out there like it is?
And knowing this, what should I do about this, health wise and politically?
Flame on.....
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curiously observing blurry patterns while slightly distracted |
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Nak
Since 19 May 2005
4297 Posts
Camas
Site Lackey
CGKA Member
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 9:03 am |
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| Matt V wrote: |
That is an absolutely false comparison. The issues in Venezuela are NOT related to any virus with a 1-5% mortality rate. That countries issues are caused by:...
The corona virus gloom and doom theorists have a few gaping holes in thier future predictions. China exemplifies the biggest one - losing a large portion of your elderly burden is a BENIFIT to their economy! It also reduces food consumption, and will result in a net decrease in medical care expenditures. |
First , it's not a false comparison. I'm comparing the depression in Venezuela to the depression we could cause here. The root cause of the depression is irrelevant. And how much food you can produce matters not that much either. Farmers are already having their crops rot because there is nobody to buy the crop.
I think you're missing my point. It's not going to get to the point where all hell breaks loose, because eventually even politicians will be smart enough to see where things are headed. At that we'll "let her rip." My point with explaining the dire consequences is trying to show that we can't, and we won't, keep this up forever. It's that simple, and you're seeing it already. The course we are on right now is unsustainable. Period. We will not stay on this course much longer. Period. So, we can ignore reality and just keep plugging along. Then in about a month or a month and a half-or maybe less--we are going to "let her rip." OR, we can steer now onto a sustainable course of action.
Let's start with the difference between Jay Inslee's approach and Kate Brown's. Saying they're both doing the right thing is kind of ignorant, because the two approaches are considerably different. Kate Brown's approach is far more sustainable than Jay Inslee's. Oregon seems to be doing just as well as Washington with the virus, so maybe Washington should be emulating Oregon? Jay Inslee slammed everything shut except essential work. Almost no exceptions. Kate Brown's approach allows businesses to stay operating if they can show they can maintain social distancing. Here in Washington, the guy who trims my trees is out of work. He is losing everything he's worked for his whole life. His work is about as virus safe as can be; he works alone outside nowhere even close to anyone else. Jay Inslee says "Fuck You". Kate Brown says "If you can work safely, you can work." Hmmm. Maybe Kate Brown is doing a better job of this than Jay Inslee. That's just one tiny example.
Understand this: If we can keep our economy going, we can sustain this effort until there is a vaccine. If we don't we can't. Period. If we can't sustain this effort, all of the people you are trying to save will die anyway. Why don't you care about those deaths? If we can keep our economy going, we can support and protect those at risk until we can beat this virus. We. Will. Save. Lives. If we stick our head in the sand and let the economy fail, we are going to "let her rip" before we have a vaccine. The only difference will be is that instead of having a strong economy to fall back on, we'll have a shattered economy and even more people will die than would have otherwise.
It's called "fighting smart." You have finite resources. Those that fail to understand that, fail. You have to make the resources you have work in the best possible way. Anything else is just stupid. Pretending you have infinite resources does not make it true. Sticking your head in the sand and refusing to contemplate the consequences of exhausting your resources is a tried and true method for failing. History is chock full of examples of that failure. Husbanding your resources and using them in the most effective way possible is absolutely proven to work. And yet here we are, sticking our head in the sand. Fight smart now and fight longer and save lives. Or fight stupid now, and give up when our resources run out and let everyone die anyway.
Last edited by Nak on Sun Apr 19, 20 9:07 am; edited 1 time in total |
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windfun7
Since 23 Aug 2015
40 Posts
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 9:25 am |
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| Nak wrote: |
Understand this: If we can keep our economy going, we can sustain this effort until there is a vaccine. If we don't we can't. Period. |
This is the fact.
Some people talk about herd immunity, others feel it is only the old that are at risk, some people are looking at bankruptcy, others are hardly affected financially. Some are at high risk from the virus, others not so much.
Best case we are looking at a year before we start seeing vaccines. We could possibly be looking at a much longer period until full implementation.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-covid-19-vaccine-could-take-longer-than-investors-expect-51587167535 worth reading if you are lucky enough to have cash available...
We need a plan to sustain until the magic vaccine kicks in.
County by County makes sense (as suggested by our Governor). When there are flare-ups, shut down the County. However, if a County can operate within acceptable risk levels, business should be open.
Training for how to operate in a virus ridden environment needs to be primary. This includes (but is not limited to) how we operate on the kite beach differently during these tough times (when the beaches are opened).
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 9:26 am |
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Nobody expected stay at home restrictions to last forever but moving too quickly to reopen is more likely to lead to a resurgence. Given recent trends in red states, continued restrictions in blue states will not matter much. Time will tell whether it was long enough.
All said, if our fearless leader acted appropriately from the outset in January (or February), the economy, tens of thousands of people, and kiting all would have had a better outcome.
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knotwindy
Since 25 Sep 2011
615 Posts
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 9:36 am |
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Odds are that there will be at least one resurgence regardless. Every recent epidemic has had at least one and usually two bounces after the initial phase has calmed down. Seems to be the nature of human/virus interaction. How bad a resurgence is, of course, debatable.
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curiously observing blurry patterns while slightly distracted |
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Nak
Since 19 May 2005
4297 Posts
Camas
Site Lackey
CGKA Member
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 9:54 am |
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| ay wrote: | | Nobody expected stay at home restrictions to last forever but moving too quickly to reopen is more likely to lead to a resurgence. Given recent trends in red states, continued restrictions in blue states will not matter much. Time will tell whether it was long enough. |
Absolutely agreed; That is exactly my point. With smarter restrictions we can sustain the effort longer. Draconian restrictions that don't make sense lead to backlash. I agreed with Inslee's initial lockdown. Do it fast and get things slowed down. But the very next day he should have been looking at what could safely open. There are a LOT of people that could be working safely; Oregon has proved that. Inslee just refuses to care.
Rules that make absolutely no sense just weaken the effort because of predictable backlash. Look at what Ige just did in Hawaii. Boats are restricted to two people from the same household, and they must maintain six feet distance while on the boat. OK, I get the same household restriction. But seriously, how utterly stupid is it to require two people who sleep in the same bed to social distance while on a boat? Rules need to have some small level of common sense--I know that's asking a lot of a politician--or every rule becomes suspect.
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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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Nak
Since 19 May 2005
4297 Posts
Camas
Site Lackey
CGKA Member
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 10:44 am |
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And for those that still don't think a bad economy kills people, a child just died of hunger while you were reading this sentence. And another one. Damn. How many will die when a poor world economy means even less charitable giving? One child starving to death every 10 seconds is already way too many. How many more will die if we don't fight this disease with our brains? How many more children will starve to death if we just plug along and ignore the economy? Several more children just died of starvation. Several others just died of complications arising from hunger. It is horrible that we have had over 40,000 deaths this year from Covid-19 in the U.S. It is also horrible that OVER ONE MILLION CHILDREN HAVE STARVED TO DEATH IN THE SAME TIME. It is a simple, incontrovertible fact that more children will starve to death due to lessened charitable giving in a bad economy. Or do those children's live's not matter because they're not on TV?
Please do not think that people that care about the economy don't care about lives. That is utter and complete B.S. Please do not think that a shattered economy won't cost lives. That is utter and complete B.S.
https://www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-22935692
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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 12:44 pm |
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I thought this wasn't political? Should we start talking about "entitlement programs? like SNAP? The current administration is working hard to eliminate all of that.
The problem with some of the comparisons to smoking, alcohol, etc are chosen. COVID-19 is novel and has potential to post bigger mortality numbers long term, especially in those of at higher risk (ie. starving).
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oliver19
Since 25 Jun 2019
84 Posts
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 1:26 pm |
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The point is the "lives vs economy" thinking is a false dichotomy. Better economy=lives saved.
Some may debate the numbers on the table posted above, but they are not too far off. It takes money to try and decrease all those deaths. Money has to change hands or there is no wealth creation. Without funds, it is difficult to fight AIDS, cancer, starvation, etc, etc. The world's economy is coming to a standstill. That will cost many, many more lives than COVID. We can and need to start economic activity again as safely as possible.
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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| Sun Apr 19, 20 6:47 pm |
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*** EDIT 1 - I will be editing this post. My statistics were off as my FLU statistics were for U.S only. NAK may have had a point 4/19/20***
*** EDIT 2 - I am going to eat some crow on this post. However, I still question the statistics NAK provided. I can not locate any statistics that represent influenza deaths from January 1 - April 1 2020 to be 121,993. (over twice the deaths of Covid-19) 4/19/20 ***
*** EDIT 3 - I am removing this post in an effort to reduce the spread of mis-information. I now believe NAK's presented statistics were correct. 4/20/20***
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Kiting starts at 40MPH
Last edited by bigjohn on Mon Apr 20, 20 8:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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