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Pepi
Since 16 Jun 2006
1831 Posts
Pure Stoke Sports
Shop Owner
CGKA Member
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caps
Since 23 Dec 2010
347 Posts
Obsessed
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 Wed Apr 15, 20 1:51 pm |
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| Pepi wrote: | | caps wrote: | | If it's not time to open things up now, what are we waiting for? |
1) open access public testing
2) accurate data of who, where and what stages people are in.
And, eventually a vaccine. |
Ok. Pipe dream! Are you willing to shut the economy down for 1-2 years to get the ultimate tests. They all have too many false negatives to know for sure. At some point we need to get real and move on. Testing could help but it won't be the corona panacea that people are hoping for. I think a staged approach can happen now.
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eric
Since 13 Jan 2006
1860 Posts
XTreme Poster
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 2:40 pm |
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"staged opening"
Are you basing your feeling on data you have seen, or a personal feeling? Not meant as a diss, or criticism, but an honest question.
I would love to see that as well, but I have seen nothing to support my wish as of yet. I'm am not an applied mathematician, epidemiologist, or expert either, so like many of us I am never sure exactly how to read the data. I can make some logical guesses by looking at exponential growth curves.
My feeling--note just a feeling--is we are too early in the flattening exponential growth curve to relax. The curve I saw today showed the last three days with very significant and increasing growth of new cases day over day.The two days prior showed significant drops. I did read an article that found this pattern over the weekends, then picking up every Monday, the hypothesis being that reporting over Saturday and Sunday is delayed, and shows up early the following week.
https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/
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navi
Since 23 Aug 2014
72 Posts
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 3:23 pm Virus days |
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People,
This virus is a major inconvenience and buzzkill. We are all kiters/foilers/surfers/mtbrs/skiers/snowboarders/hikers/climbers/individual sport lovers with at least moderate antisocial skills and a good dose of self reliance, creativity and independence. IT IS HARD FOR US TO BE TOLD WHAT TO DO (OR NOT DO). And at the same time, be deprived of the things that fill our cup. Because of a 120nanometer invisible particle.
We are still flying pretty blind in this virus shit storm; there are still so many unknowns that any predictions going forward should be taken with 2 grains of salt. One thing we know for sure - there are refrigerated trailers holding bodies next to hospitals on the East coast. If we don't behave, your loved one, your mom or kid could be gone. Or, 2019 may have been the last time you ever kited, etc.
Because of our hardy nature, we have it in us to do the right thing.
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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 4:10 pm |
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Pepi, Eric, & Navi with the voice of reason.
Caps, I do not understand why some people (Republicans) are readily willing to trade lives for the "economy", especially when their economic status can afford kiting, golf, etc. You know what will make the economy a lot worse? A lot more people dying.
The 1918 H1N1 spanish flu pandemic didn't really get bad until 1919. We all need to follow science and listen to responsible law makers like west coast governors. If we don't, the curve will stop being flat.
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caps
Since 23 Dec 2010
347 Posts
Obsessed
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 6:04 pm |
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Social distancing, hand hygiene and even masking works. Keep that all going until we have it in the rear view mirror. In the mean time, open up some non-essential business so people can make a living. Unemployment is not benign.
Most areas have not had the surges that New York has and could open things up slowly with sensible policies in place. Trust the people! And it's your choice to venture out if you dare. Kiting is not the priority but I doubt it would have any negative impact over other allowed "essential" activities.
My 2 cents. Peace out all!
Last edited by caps on Thu Apr 16, 20 5:38 am; edited 1 time in total |
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jeremy
Since 18 Aug 2006
276 Posts
Manzo & HR
Obsessed
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 6:12 pm contact tracing in Hood River |
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Regarding contact tracing, my mother was recently tested for Covid19 as she lives in Parkhurst Assisted Living and was exposed to the 4th individual in Hood River county that has tested positive for Covid19. As you can see from this official document that was released, they appear to not have any problems in Hood River County now with doing adequate testing (10 residents and various staff were tested, all negative results). They swabbed my mother in the afternoon and the test results were posted shortly after midnight, so the turnaround time was less than 12 hrs. I think this is good new for testing, and also good news that various virus protection measures (face masks, social distancing, gloves, etc) that are commonly being used now helped keep the virus contained.
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Blazeheliski
Since 30 Mar 2011
659 Posts
Mosier
Addicted
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 6:33 pm |
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| ay wrote: | Pepi, Eric, & Navi with the voice of reason.
Caps, I do not understand why some people (Republicans) are readily willing to trade lives for the "economy", especially when their economic status can afford kiting, golf, etc. You know what will make the economy a lot worse? A lot more people dying.
The 1918 H1N1 spanish flu pandemic didn't really get bad until 1919. We all need to follow science and listen to responsible law makers like west coast governors. If we don't, the curve will stop being flat. |
You might want to update your stereotypes if you are going to get all political. Democratic districts and many Democratic politicians are the wealthiest in the country.
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/15/charts-democrats-represent-modern-economy-republicans-left-behind.html?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15870020839703&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2018%2F11%2F15%2Fcharts-democrats-represent-modern-economy-republicans-left-behind.html
Does promoting income envy help us work together as a community and get through this? I know people at all income levels that are hurting. A lot of the wealthier people I know are closer to bankruptcy because they have a lot more financial responsibilities. The virus is hitting all of us one way or the other. It doesn't care about political parties, race, income level, etc. Sowing seeds of "us" vs "them" doesn't help.
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ay
Since 11 Oct 2008
112 Posts
HR - ME
Stoked
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 9:07 pm |
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"Trust the people! And it's your choice to venture out if you dare."
"People" are not scientists and individual choice affects us all.
That is terrible to hear that your mother is sick in Parkhurst. All of these difficult measures are to help prevent spread to those of highest risk and unfortunately happened anyways. "There are unidentified and asymptomatic cases in our community."
Political stereotypes? Our current President just cut funding to the WHO. Democrats of all income classes are making better decisions. Friends with businesses in tough shape still get it. As for those being over levered, I have ZERO sympathy for you. Tell your sorrows (through a mask) to the next cashier selling groceries. Completely agree the virus does not play favorites and we are all affected, but some more materially than others.
STAY HOME
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 11:01 pm |
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I find it unfortunate that this pandemic has become a political issue.
To me there are two considerations:
1) The safety and health of people
2) Economics
It is unfortunate that there is a direct and inverse relationship between the two. The more we focus on improving one, the more we negatively impact the other.
Additionally, people are not evenly affected by these two factors. Some people are more at risk from a safety perspective. Others are more affected from an economics perspective.
There is no simple answer. Only a choice of the lessor of two evils.
_________________
Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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user124
Since 02 Aug 2012
391 Posts
Portland
Obsessed
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 11:21 pm |
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| bigjohn wrote: | I find it unfortunate that this pandemic has become a political issue.
To me there are two considerations:
1) The safety and health of people
2) Economics
It is unfortunate that there is a direct and inverse relationship between the two. The more we focus on improving one, the more we negatively impact the other.
Additionally, people are not evenly affected by these two factors. Some people are more at risk from a safety perspective. Others are more affected from an economics perspective.
There is no simple answer. Only a choice of the lessor of two evils. |
I partially disagree. While some are more affected by health concerns (older, more medical problems) and some are more affected by economic impact, there is not an inverse correlation between the two. Case in point was Trump's poor attempt today to get business leaders and CEOs to support him opening up the economy ASAP . Smart business leaders all understand that regardless of whether the government says the country is "open for business", things won't return to normal until people feel safe. Until we have better treatments or a vaccine, widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantine are the best tools we have to address health and public safety, which will ultimately address economic woes by hopefully avoiding stay-at-home and total shutdown of non-essential business.
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oliver19
Since 25 Jun 2019
84 Posts
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| Wed Apr 15, 20 11:38 pm |
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| bigjohn wrote: | I find it unfortunate that this pandemic has become a political issue.
To me there are two considerations:
1) The safety and health of people
2) Economics
It is unfortunate that there is a direct and inverse relationship between the two. The more we focus on improving one, the more we negatively impact the other.
Additionally, people are not evenly affected by these two factors. Some people are more at risk from a safety perspective. Others are more affected from an economics perspective.
There is no simple answer. Only a choice of the lessor of two evils. |
If you take a big picture view, the 2 are actually very closely related and positively correlated. Human life expectancy has improved dramatically over history due to "economics" (meaning wealth creation in this case). Just to give a very small and simple example. There is probably a researcher in a lab somewhere today who was working on something that would prolong human life. It could be a new chemotherapy for cancer, a new antibiotic, etc, etc whose research has been halted due to lack of funding.
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
664 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Apr 16, 20 6:32 am |
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| oliver19 wrote: | | There is probably a researcher in a lab somewhere today who was working on something that would prolong human life. It could be a new chemotherapy for cancer, a new antibiotic, etc, etc whose research has been halted due to lack of funding. |
Or perhaps that same researcher just passed away from the coronavirus.
There is no simple answer. Only a choice of the lessor of two evils.
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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Jonpnw
Since 22 Jul 2010
1327 Posts
Pacific Northwest
XTreme Poster
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Wind Slither
Since 04 Mar 2005
2619 Posts
The 503
METAL
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| Thu Apr 16, 20 8:58 am |
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I think the lessor of 2 evils choice here is pretty simple and we're heading for it. We have to start bringing the economy back to life without overwhelming the healthcare system and accept the fact that we're going to have more deaths than if we locked things down indefinitely.
Just watched a Nike employee training video for their world headquarters reopening in Shanghai.
-Masks all the time
-Maintain personal distance always
-Only essential personnel
-Hand sanitizer everywhere
-Head count limits in rooms, elevators, tables, etc.
-No sharing of supplies, equipment, etc.
-Temperature check points on entry and through the day
-Nightly sanitation
You get the idea...it's going to be weird for a while.
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user124
Since 02 Aug 2012
391 Posts
Portland
Obsessed
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| Thu Apr 16, 20 9:29 am |
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| All the stuff Nike suggests is going to be reality for a long time, but it's not enough as the virus is too contagious and will still spread wit those measures. Bezos has the right idea. His goal is to test all Amazon employees. This should be applied everywhere. We have to identify those who are sick and temporarily quarantine them. This not only reduces spread but it allows those who don't have the virus to feel safe and resume normal economic and other activity. Win-win.
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Matt V
Since 26 Oct 2014
462 Posts
Summer- OR Coast, Winter - My van near good snow
Explosive Diarrhea
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| Thu Apr 16, 20 8:06 pm |
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Don't forget there are some other benefits to the shutdown. Maybe norovirus become a thing of the past. It could also set back the flu and common cold. Plus it highlights the source of most of these viruses. On top of that we will like the gain some Independence in medical equipment / Supply manufacturing capabilities back in the US where it should be. The cost of lives is high for this, but it could have been much higher, if the virus would have had a mortality rate of significance.
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